Forecast
Options
|
Rain
The final element that we have been waiting for has been the combine May and June rainfall correlation to ground nesting birds and we show a strength with our multi region lease land distribution. The entire western half of Kansas has now had its fourth consecutive dry spring with above average chick hatch and brood survival rates as indicated by the less than 10 inches combine two month rainfall. We will be experiencing the level of hunting numbers that are reminiscent of the early 90's for both pheasant and quail.
Other good news includes southern Iowa and north and south west Missouri.
Southern Iowa
Southern Iowa two seasons ago demonstrated how quickly the bird numbers could rebound with just one dry spring with that region boasting the best bird numbers in memory. Then the next year (last season) the spring rains turned against us with what was described locally as a "northern weather flow" caused by a unseasonably high jet stream and bird numbers dropped sharply. This year we bounce back with good spring rain numbers combining with a fair carry over population making for some very good hunting to be had this fall.
North Missouri
North Missouri will share with Iowa the same increased bird numbers with the difference between these two regions being that Iowa will have a good mix of pheasant and quail while the farther south traveled from the Iowa state line into Missouri the pheasants will drop off and quail numbers increase. This is not related to spring rains but rather to other environmental limiting factors that define the population zone for the pheasant.
Southeast Kansas
The heartbreak lies with southeast Kansas where recent years has seen a resurgence of this region's quail populations. With the unfavorable rains this region is anticipated to be no better in terms of bird numbers than last season. The high power quail dog hunters that favors this region will continue to find their steadfast coveys with variations to both sides of the bird cycle.
Northeast Kansas
Northeast Kansas suffered a similar conditions as did southeast Kansas. These areas will less likely to have the birds as farther west, east or northeast into Iowa and most affect the local Kansas City hunter that seeks a quick drive. These hunters would be better off traveling a bit more for the better hunting.
Overall, rainfall amounts by day were light with occasional heavy rains. While the eastern 1/4 of Kansas was unlucky and suffered sustained rainfall per rain event the remainder of Kansas, Iowa and Missouri benefited from the more typical rain band influenced by the classic cold northern front heading south meeting the warmer, moisture laden gulf air. These rain bands produced heavy and light showers of limited duration and adverse impact.
Ranking
For those that find it necessary to rank order traditional upland bird hunting states and in this case limited to pheasants, Huron, South Dakota, often claimed to be one of the very best pheasant hunting localities in the world had a combined May and June 2005 rainfall of 8.4 inches. Combine that tidbit with their colder and heavier snowfall winters to that of Kansas and their shorter hunting season to gain an appreciation of where to spend the most field time.
Consequences
All good news always has a consequence.
Those that experienced last season's very good upland bird hunting are likely to return this year for the same or better experience. These hunters have been recommending us to their friends with new upland bird primary membership applications on an increase since even before last season was finished last January.
The anticipated bird dog and hunting magazine articles that are traditional fodder for the summer time issues will no doubt tout the increased bird counts resulting from our good hatch and brood survival. All this will combine in more hunters traveling to our part of the country as has been the historical example for the last 30 years. This will result in more trespassing both accidental and intentional. To that end every Association hunter should anticipate being carded whenever on Association lease land and all Association members should consider it automatic to card each and every person encountered on Association lease land. Trespassers will come and it will take all of us to protect that which we paid for.
More
An interesting observation for the western half of Kansas has been the ever growing Rio Grande Turkey (ground nesting birds and spring rainfall correlation) populations. It is common place to observe this past year Rio flocks numbering into the 100's. This was beyond expectation even as late as 10 years ago. The general observations have been that the current flocks continue to grow in size at a faster rate than new flocks developed in new areas. The topic of discussion has been how large will a Rio flock become?
If this forecast appears confident it is due to our years of our first hand, boots on the ground observations within a concentrated geographic area.
|
East Kansas seems to have been targeted by nature this spring to be rained on and rained on often.
The bottom line is that for those lucky enough to be starting a first season pup this will be a good year for a lot of wild bird exposure.