Forecast
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| Looking ForwardTo be as good as we want to be requires study and analysis. This end of season review of the 2005 upland bird hunting season compares our original July 2005 forecast to actual during season hunting experience to see where we were right and wrong with our predictions. The value of this analysis is that this season's ending point is the starting point for next season's forecast. Right and WrongFor the most part of our pre season indicators of potential hunting success they were accurate at determining up or down bird population densities compared to the previous season.
The south Iowa and north Missouri region surprised us with higher covey counts than expected as the spring rains while on the good side of the cut line were not as good as central and western Kansas. For those that quail hunted this region the coveys from last season were typically found again in the same spots, more new covey spots found, covey size large at 20 +/- birds and their survival instincts strong with ground loving into the cover flight patterns that foiled many shot opportunity. This area with good 2006 spring rains will make for some of the better hunting to come. SE Kansas did live up to expectations and provided minimal quality in spite of its recent years steady increase in covey counts. This area will require a very good spring hatch to justify travel effort. Pheasant numbers proved our prediction right in all regions except SC Iowa and NC Kansas were the better pheasant hunting was localized or isolated to the best cover of the tall grass. Other areas of edge lines and brush or grass filled drainages did not produce as much pheasant action as is typical during an up year. Within these two regions it appears it will take an exceptional good spring hatch to spread significant pheasant numbers outside of the limited tall grass fields. NC Kansas is experiencing a decline in CRP acreage and that apparently has had a cumulative degradation to the overall region specifically for pheasant numbers. Quail numbers being down in this same area for the second consecutive season in spite of the good spring weather and abundant edge cover remains a mystery to us as the decline is without observable causative factors. This NC Kansas area if receiving good 2006 spring rains will get another area wide review for future lease considerations. While its past 10 + year history has demonstrated it to be one of the state's perennial better areas the last two seasons have been disappointing at best. Continuation of this trend is reminiscent of SE Kansas about 10 to 12 years ago and may result in our seeking better habitat in other regions of the state. During Season WeatherNW Kansas does receive additional comment due to the November 30 snowfall that was exceptional even for long time Kansas residents. During this same central USA storm the local and nationwide news shows highlighted the highways in Nebraska and South Dakota as being closed due to drifting snows and the adverse regional impact of this once in a long while winter storm. What was not well reported was the highway closures of 36 in NW Kansas on the west side of Norton and 70 past Manhattan. To give an indication of the strength of this storm the regional electrical cooperative in NW Kansas reported somewhere between 650 and 750 power line poles were snapped due to the weight of the heavy snows, strength of the wind and extreme cold. The longest a community survived without electricity was 8 days. Local residents told how the drifted snow so filled the roads high as a truck and for long stretches the limited township and county snow removal equipment was inadequate at clearing snow to allow power crews access to the broken lines. Local farmers with plows and bucket loaders cleared as many paths to power line poles and pulled stuck service trucks as did any other. This same storm appears to have had a greater detrimental effect to the pheasant population than to quail. The greatest degradation to pheasant populations came from the snow laying down the tall grass protective cover. In spite of that many hunters will quickly agree far more rabbit predation piles were found than of feathered ones. Not only will less protective cover making predation easier, the grass did not concentrate the pheasants for the easy hunting conditions as we may like. And, there is good news. What NW Kansas has shown us over the past three seasons is that the two earlier had preceding summer droughts and this year's detrimental snowfall the hunting was still good enough to make for many repeat trips in one season. While this region had far better early season hunts than those after November 30th, the outlook for this region is typically better than others with even better year round weather conditions. A variation to the more predictable causes and effects that we see elsewhere and unique to this area. Weather was the overall season long enhancer or degrader to the hunter. November provided the best weather with occasional high wind and rain days. December was well discussed by local weathermen due to its consistent below average cold weather and the number of colder than average days. Many will remember the 12 to 20 degree wake up temperatures with most waiting until the 8 to 830 AM sunrise to warm the earth and soul to 30 degrees before exiting the truck. While a bonus for dog running it was finger numbing, gloved hand, heavy coat conditions for most of the month. January's weather continued the surprise in the other direction with well above average high temperatures making it one of the warmest on record. The combination of warm temperatures and occasional high wind days limited the better pheasant hunting to the morning and late afternoon. Quail hunters enjoyed the nicer for the hunter January temperatures while taking advantage of the tree lined creek bottoms to lessen the wind effect and allow for plenty of good hunts. For the most part many had exceptional weather hunts being lucky with hunts that coincided with the many periods of good weather we experienced and others were not lucky at all. Carl that travels all the way from Maine gave all of us an exceptional account of how unlucky someone can be with weather while other local members reported 1 in 3 and 2 in 5 days being very good hunting weather days. Such is the nature of wild upland bird hunting on existing habitat. To expect anything other is to live in a fantasy.
ConclusionsThe bird hunting was good, we are poised for a good season to come with a very good carry over bird population in most of our regions. Our next assessment will be at the end of the May - June 2006 nesting and brood months. What is the value of our forecast is that when business and customer dollars are concerned we must be more accurate to survive as we are accountable by those paying the cost. Compare that aspect to magazine article writers or state officials that get the same payment regardless of accuracy. Besides how many other sources give as many negatives as positives for as balanced an analysis as is required to make for good hunt planning decision criteria. No advertisers to satisfy in this organization.
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The map at right even where we were right, actual boots on the ground hunting experienced did show quail numbers to be higher than expected in NW, SC and the western edge of NE Kansas, SC Iowa and for the most part all of north Missouri. Special highlights were NW and SC Kansas had some of the highest quail counts in memory.
