Forecasts
Upland Bird Hunts
State Choices | The 2006 - 2007 upland bird hunting forecast and actual boots-on-the-ground results were split between pheasant and quail hunters. That split was well defined in the 2006 midseason upland bird hunting forecast review and remained unchanged through the end of the season.QuailQuail hunters across all experience levels and longevity within Mid-America Hunting Association reported quail populations in several regions at or better than memory. Comments cover the range that the previous seasons' coveys were present during the current season on the same lease at or in greater individual bird counts. More "new" coveys were found on farms with good habitat. And, the trend at more members hunting with a conservation mindset rather than a daily limit mind set increasing. Wild Bobwhite Quail in Kansas, Iowa and Missouri if given a good nesting and brooding period in May and June 2007 are set to be at the highest levels in a long time.
PheasantKansas pheasant hunters reliant on the quality of tall grass pheasant hunting found the entire northern tier region weak and that of south central Kansas from good to below average with direct correlation to the perceived pheasant hunting quality. Adverse impacts on the tall grass pheasant habitat resulted from limited warm weather rainfall (tall prairie grasses are warm season grasses meaning they grow best during warm to hot weather if given moisture). This adverse rainfall impact was aggravated on first year CRP contacts and older fields that were burned in the spring as part of the annual maintenance requirement. The newly planted CRP fields simply resulted in thin and short stands as the tall grass does not have drought sustainable root structure typically until the third growing season. Burned fields had higher than average re-growth failure as shown by above soil surface clump stumps and while for the most part had sufficient root structure they too suffered from lack of summer rain to support re-growth The lack of summer rains had further impacts. The northern tier CRP was released from contractual grazing and harvest restrictions as a farm relief drought compensation measure. This release reflects a previous and continuing mission creep of the Farm Bill conservation programs shifting from conservation to income generation. The latest example of this creep is the proposal to allow farmers to participate in conservation programs with government payments to grow Switch Grass as a bio-fuel resource allowing harvest and sale of the grass. While the Switch Grass/bio-fuel proposal will continue to conserve soil, the original intent of the CRP program, it does little for wildlife and degrades carbon sequestering. This is one example where hunters through their special interest political action groups can weigh in on government actions and resulting impacts on hunting quality. South central Kansas pheasant hunters experienced the best pheasant hunting to be found. While many reported numbers less than last season overall most were satisfied with their experiences and bird counts. Overall, Kansas pheasant numbers appear to have been lower across the entire state than the previous season, the tall grass did not concentrate their numbers in the easier to hunt habitat and some hunters experienced they may not have had the dog power for adverse habitat conditions. Those pheasant hunters with capability to hunt habitat other than tall grass concurred with the lower overall number count and that the hunts were still worth the time and effort allowing for a good day in the field. Iowa pheasant numbers were similarly depressed and for the most part those that hunted Mid-America Hunting Association leases in south central Iowa concentrated on quail with the occasional pheasant as a bonus. Missouri pheasant hunting while existing in limited scope is not promoted as a viable pheasant hunt choice and not covered in this upland bird forecast review.
Forecast SummaryThe current upland bird forecast methodology while proven sound over the years with its current contributing environmental factors analysis should be modified to include summer rainfall levels in those regions involving tall grass pheasant hunting. This additional factor while not directly correlative to reproduction and not uniform to all regions does impact hunt quality and gives further information on which to make a better decision on bird of preference and habitat preference of where and what upland bird to hunt. Addition of this environmental contributing factor is easily acquired and included into the overall assessment with impact of making a two phased forecast. The first phase would be that after the May - June nesting and brood months (more quail than pheasant centric), the second at the end of September summer tall grass growing period (pheasant centric to that of Kansas). In spite of the negative tone of the previous end of season pheasant analysis, carry over population numbers of hens is strong and set to allow for a rebound in huntable roosters given a good spring hatch and summer rains for the tall grass hunters. Quail carry over is as high compared to past seasons as memory will allow and while a period of mortality does exist from now until spring nesting we have seen in some regions this past season how it takes but one good nesting spring to make a significant rebound in overall population numbers. The current winter's limited snowfall does not appear to be a negative impact leaving the spring rains the final checkpoint. A good spring rainfall count this coming May and June will make for even a better season this fall than that of the past season. The fall 2007 upland bird forecast next check mark will be the May - June 2007 nesting and brood months. |
