Forecasts
Upland Bird Hunts
State Choices | Main IssueThe first half of the 2006 upland bird hunting season seems to be split between the earlier quail and pheasant forecast. The short answer is that quail are at or above last season's level and pheasants below last season bird numbers.
This kind of during the hunting season experience compared to the earlier forecasts by ourselves, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa state agencies brings into question the forecast methodology in use. A problem with this year's mid-season forecast analysis centers on that within our upland bird region in Kansas, Missouri and Iowa a third overlapping ground nesting bird, the turkey, has the same nesting and brood period as quail and pheasant and their numbers are up as determined by boots on the ground observations. At this juncture with quail at or above last year's levels, turkey numbers are up and with pheasant numbers less than the previous season, indicates a causative factor outside of current forecast methodology. PheasantSome are quick to point out that the low amount of rainfall preceding the hunting season adversely affected pheasants more so than turkey or quail. If this is the case that dry summers are a contributing factor is the cause due to reduced reproduction survival or is it habitat related? When drilling down to this level the person citing the dry weather typically paused and then developed an answer as part of that conversation rather than as a preconceived thought. The answers have been split between habitat and during summer offspring survival. Those that promote the declined in pheasant numbers compared to earlier forecast indicators as caused by declining habitat quality cite the tall grass that typically holds pheasant tight and in large numbers for shot opportunity was not high or thick enough to gain that easy to hunt advantage. The idea is that many long time pheasant hunters have been spoiled for too long hunting the tall grass and that neither they or their dogs have the skills to hunt the more sparse or spotty habitat. That pheasant dog power issue has been addressed before to include during what was considered good years as there always have been hunters hunting the same area that do better than others. The distinction in that case has been the quality of their dog work as many of the less successful hunters state they see a lot of wild flush birds. This is in converse to the more successful hunters that state they find plenty of point and shot opportunity. If all other things are equal this simplified analysis is that some dogs pressure birds to run/flush while others have sufficient point standoff to gain hunter flush/shot opportunity. This effect is evident during bad habitat years as well. During less than quality grass years those hunters that do well during good years continue to do better than others on less quality habitat. The mature bird theory supports those that cite the dry and warm weather as causing a high mortality of the spring hatch. What exactly caused the mortality is unclear. What is the observation is that of the pheasants actually making it to the game bag the majority were mature rather than juvenile birds. This is as far as the mature bird analysis extends. A universal comment running the length of the first half of the season was the warm and dry weather conditions making for many partial day hunts.
QuailQuail hunters on the other hand are satisfied with many of those with good quail dog power reporting hunts on par or better than last year over a wide range of locations. Those with admitted less than desired quail dog power reported three covey days being a good day. Those with good dog power stated 4 covey, half days frequent enough for a satisfying early season. Overall, quail primary hunters report the fewest complaints with the only near common topic being Kansas cutting the last 10 days of the quail season. The issue in this case is that most quail hunters prefer the cooler weather of winter over that of early November that more frequently than not has too warm of weather for the better dog work. MethodologyPast years analysis of summer heat and rainfall did not yield any correlative factor significant enough to be included into our upland bird forecast methodology. In the absence of any other cause and effect for why one of three ground nesting birds within the same region and nesting/brood period to have different during season observations indicates re-inclusion of that weather data is valid. If heat and rainfall is not correlative to pheasant numbers as is indicated by the increase in quail and turkey numbers then perhaps there is a smart hunter out there that could tell us what to look at as an indicator of bird population levels. In any event upland bird forecasts are a soft science at best and seem to have the accuracy rating of weather forecasting. In any event hats off to Kansas and Iowa for their prediction of a decline in pheasant numbers based on road surveys. It appears in terms of pheasant numbers Missouri and MAHA was not as right as they would like to be. Quail on the other hand appear to have been more accurately forecasted by all. |
