2006 Upland Bird Forecast for parts of Kansas, Iowa and Missouri

Forecasts

Upland Bird Hunts

Bobwhite Quail

Pheasant

State Choices

Work In Progress

Our 2006 upland bird forecast (as all of our upland bird forecasts) is a year round effort with several quality gates with the latest and most significant being the nest and brood months (May and June) weather effects for the ground nesting birds of interest within Kansas, Missouri and Iowa where we lease land. Those birds of interest are pheasants and Bobwhite Quail.

The reader is asked to understand that this upland bird forecast is written for both the long time current member/bird hunter as well as the new to MAHA bird hunter. To that end we try to straddle a balance between background descriptions of precise language and current status discussion presuming the reader has the earlier background reading provided on other web pages referred to in the text as hyperlinks.

The current status is examination of May's and June's rainfall by region. This forecast assumes reader prior knowledge of our methodology.

Last Season To This Season

Our 2006 upland bird hunting forecast begins with the 2005 End Of Season analysis giving example of our previous forecasting performance and carry over bird populations. The strength of carryover birds presumes breeding pair density. This leads into nesting success of rearing chicks from egg to juvenile status defined as young birds with quill feather development to the point or warding off rain.

This Season

Building on the 2005eos the next analysis opportunity is the May through June nesting and brood months for central mid-west ground nesting birds. In particular pheasant and Bobwhite Quail within the region we watch throughout the year with boots on the ground experience in Kansas, Missouri and Iowa and parts within.

The predictive cause and effect relationship we are examining is the effect caused by rainfall enhancements or degradation to nest and brooding chick survival rates. In short the more it rains the greater the adverse effect, the less it rains the higher brooding success rate to be expected. A regional model not compatible to other areas.

This rainfall effect is that which if it rains too much chicks without sufficient quill feather development die of hypothermia. Those chicks with greater quill feather development can survive. The word "can" rather than "may" is used as this analysis does relate to the chicks capability rather than rain itself.

The "rain too much" cut line we have experienced in the past is closely relative to 10 inches. This less than absolute definition is due to that not all rain in the spring during brooding is equal.

Air temperature such as this spring's (2006) warm spring is less damaging than a cold spring combined with heavy morning dew or rainfall. Daytime as opposed to night time rains also cause the 10" cut line to be fuzzy as during dark the chicks are up under the hen as during the day out and about under the rain's influence. This combined with the "old field" effect [source: "Winter Macro and Micro habitat Use Of Winter Roost Sites In Central Missouri" (Camberlain, Drobney and Dailey)] keeps the chicks dryer and the old field effect extends that many have observed to be more conducive to insect population densities.

One natural indication of a warm compared to cold spring is the wheat harvest. Average in our farm's (John Wenzel's) immediate area is the last week of June to the first week in July. This year wheat was ready by the end of the first week in June, that is as early as it gets on warm springs.

When it comes to total rainfall while all of the afore mention factors contribute they are beyond our tracking capability and we have found simply using the 10" cut line regardless of field quality, air temperature and day or night rains to be an effective measure.

May Rains

Summation of the datasets listed further below. May's rainfall will be later combined with June's rainfall for a more complete picture of predicted better fall hunting areas.

The map above shows reporting locations and total May 2006 rainfall in inches. The northern tier counties in Kansas and Missouri as well as southern Iowa faired well and on mostly good carry over populations from last year. Southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri continues what we observed last year and that was lower bird populations and having higher than desired rainfall last as well as this spring. To learn what this means requires a review of our methodology.

May Data Sets

Trace -.25	Trace through .25 inches of rain in one day. Considered to have minimal adverse impact on brooding of ground nesting birds.
.26 - <.5	Greater than .25 inches at .50 or less in one day. This amount of rain is considered to begin to have adverse impact on ground nesting birds during brood months prior to quill feather development. More consequence within closer proximity of other rains and less the greater isolated from previous or subsequent rains. More consequence earlier in the brooding period than later.
>.5	Greater than .50 inches of rain in one day is considered to have significant adverse impact on pre-quill feathered chicks
All rain data collected from AccuWeather.com.

Missouri

May 2006 Rain	St. Joe, Mo	Kansas City, Mo	Columbia, Mo	Kirksville, Mo	Springfield, MO	Joplin, MO	St Louis, MO
1	0.01	trace	0.01	trace	0.01	trace	0.56
2	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	0.64	0.73	0.29	0.37	0.92	0.00	0.13
4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.47	1.97	0.00
5	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00
6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38	1.23	0.00
7	0.00	trace	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
8	0.00	trace	trace	trace	0.05	0.14	0.00
9	0.36	0.19	0.26	0.03	0.64	0.87	0.23
10	trace	0.00	0.03	0.00	3.15	0.44	1.18
11	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.16
12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	trace
14	trace	0.00	trace	trace	trace	0.00	0.08
15	trace	trace	trace	trace	0.01	0.00	0.08
16	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.07	trace	trace	0.36
17	trace	trace	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	trace
18	0.00	0.00	0.00	trace	0.00	0.00	0.00
19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	trace
20	trace	trace	trace	0.00	trace	trace	trace
21	0.00	0.00	0.00	trace	0.90	0.02	trace
22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	trace	0.00	0.00
23	trace	0.00	trace	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
24	0.01	0.41	0.00	0.01	trace	0.13	0.05
25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.42	0.00
27	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
29	0.04	trace	0.21	0.16	0.44	0.00	trace
30	0.36	trace	0.03	0.84	trace	1.20	0.00
31	trace	0.48	0.84	0.18	0.00	0.03	0.05
sum	1.6	1.88	1.94	1.77	7.0	7.47	2.88

Kansas

May 2006 Rain	Lincoln, NE NE KS	Fort Riley, KS	Concordia, KS	Holdrege, NE NW Kansas,	Goodland, Ks	Dodge City, KS	Medicine Lodge , KS	Wichita, KS	Chanute, KS
1	0.00	trace	0.00	0.00	0.02	trace	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	trace	0.00	trace	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	trace	0.00
3	0.28	0.24	0.61	0.02	trace	0.00	0.00	0.08	1.29
4	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.10	0.02	0.43	0.64	0.50
5	0.00	0.07	0.01	0.05	0.02	0.20	0.18	0.02	0.10
6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.30	0.02	0.18	0.60
7	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.62	0.72	0.28	trace	0.02
8	0.93	0.76	0.68	0.01	0.15	0.63	0.00	0.32	0.11
9	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.00	trace	0.14	0.38	1.96	1.18
10	trace	trace	trace	trace	0.00	0.10	0.09	0.32	0.06
11	trace	0.00	0.00