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| LearningThis season has shown us a need to refine our upland bird forecast methodology. The modification is to include the cumulative effects of successive localized adverse environmental impact that add up over time. The prime example this season was Kansas, Washington County, Unit C that had pheasant cover as good as it gets with large contiguous tall grass CRP along side row crop gain fields during one of the better farming seasons in memory. That combination of cover and waste grain food typically means a lot of pheasants especially after this past favorable spring breeding season. However, this year in Unit C that was not the case. Concurrent with the unexpected lower pheasant hunting quality of Washington County was the higher than predicted quail and pheasant counts in north west Kansas where some of the best late season, right down to the last week of the season bird hunts occurred. The cause and effect we have drawn out of these two localities that were above and below what we forecasted indicated that while the current forecast model proved accurate in Iowa, Missouri and the rest of Kansas, in these two localities the model was not as accurate as we would prefer. Our 2007 - 2008 forecast for Kansas was: "Pheasant...North central and northwest Kansas follow as a close second and close enough to make for all three regions [SC Kansas being the third] to provide good hunts with some better on quail as well." We had believed that NC and NW Kansas would have good upland bird hunts second only to SC Kansas. However, we found that our forecast model demonstrated both an under and over estimate. Digging into why this occurred surfaced chance conversations we had with locals in each area as well as our having recognized that this past summer had some intense and localized rainfalls. (See Forecast 2007 Summer Rains) This follows on top of our earlier observations of the end of season sever winter snow storm in western Kansas in January 2007 as well as the drought that occurred 2005 in NW Kansas all produced localize forecast impacts outside of our basic model. Each of these localized events by themselves rarely have an adverse impact on ground nesting birds. However, when any one locality receives successive small adverse weather impacts the collective effect may be a stronger indicator of fall hunt quality than the more significant factors such as spring breeding season weather. Weather is also not the only small impact that may collect with other impacts for determining fall hunt quality. Another seemingly small impact that may have longer term in regards of the subsequent fall's hunt quality is current crop rotations. A prime example of which we are watching as occurred this year with anticipated effects for the fall of 2008 is in Kiowa County. What occurred in Kiowa County, Kansas the spring of 2007 was the tornado most remember that erased the town of Greensburg. The tornado itself did little damage to the local or regional ground nesting bird population outside of the 9 mile tornado path. What it did do was delay field planting due to equipment losses that along with the wet spring and early summer prevented earlier to plant crops such as corn and milo. Those that hunted Kiowa County this year saw the majority of the fields in green/winter wheat. There is a belief that cover areas around wheat fields to be less pheasant productive than those on milo or corn. If that is true then the fall 2008 pheasant hunt in Kiowa will not be as good as in 2007. While we do not believe that wheat over other crops alone will have a significant impact on localized pheasant and quail populations. We are now watching this as a small event that may add to others to give a more accurate forecast of fall hunt quality. What we have concluded from these observations over the years is that while our basic forecast model does capture the significant single or isolated time period upland bird number impacting environmental causes there does lie need to recognize smaller adverse events. These small events that by themselves would have no significant impact will if successive or additive inclusive of other small localized events do add up to effect bird numbers come hunting season. As our forecasting model objective is to lend prediction in terms of where the best hunt quality will occur during the season we now have need to capture isolated events that occur over the course of a year within any one locality. Example of these events we seek to capture as a means of improving the accuracy of our upland bird forecast include: Drought that affects grain crop growth & cover quality Ice ground coverage preventing winter food availability Severe cold periods Winter storms that include high winds casing drifting Localized intense summer rains These observations will be in addition to base forecast observations during the season bird densities behind our own bird dogs, input from hunter/members, end of season carry of bird status, spring hatch and brood month weather. End Of Season AssessmentStarting with our 2007 - 2008 upland bird forecast adding to it of during season behind our dog observations, member contributions and localized end of season bird densities we find: Kansas QuailSouth central and north west Kansas did have as high of covey counts as we have previously experienced in these regions with quail coveys on the small size, 10 and under, in SC Kansas and the largest, 20+ in NW Kansas. NC Kansas did yield good covey counts and size equal to the previous year and inverse to that region's pheasant counts. SE Kansas and NE Kansas did produce as forecasted with lower than previous year bird counts.
Kansas PheasantSC Kansas did have the highest pheasant counts throughout the season and did experience increased hunter pressure as the season progressed. End of season counts remain the highest of any region in Kansas. NW Kansas with is higher than predicted 2007-2008 pheasant count is equal to SC Kansas in terms of production capability this 2008 spring nesting and brooding period. NW Kansas received little hunter pressure to include some units without any hunters on opening weekend. NW Kansas compared to SC Kansas if all weather impacts remain equally is poised to return to its former great years and may surpass that of SC Kansas. That is more likely the case for those pheasant hunters with the dog power capable of hunting other than contiguous tall grass.
Kansas Upland BirdsOverall Kansas compared to Iowa and Missouri has a larger area of higher end of season quail and pheasant counts with good carry over for spring breeding. A good spring breeding season will make Kansas the best of our three state region come the fall of 2008.
Iowa QuailSpring 2007 breeding period was adversely affected by a wet spring leading to fewer quail as compared to 2006 -2007 season that was one of the better seasons in memory. With a lower end of season quail count in January 2008 it will require an average to dryer spring during the May - June 2008 nesting and brooding period to bring the quail counts up to better than this past season. We have seen before where one good spring will quickly regain any population decline and that successive bad breeding weather directly contributes to lower hunt quality that fall.
Iowa PheasantPheasant populations paralleled that of Iowa quail and were less this year than last. Iowa pheasants require a good spring 2008 nest, hatch and brood period to rebound to their normal twice as good as Missouri and half that of Kansas pheasant status.
Iowa Upland BirdsWhile our southern Iowa pheasant and quail hunt quality was depressed this year there were isolated good days reported by various hunters. Covey counts ranged from one to seven per day and pheasant bag counts from zero to three for one or more days each hunting trip. For the 2008 - 2009 Iowa upland bird season to be good it will require good reproduction weather during May - June 2008.
Missouri QuailMissouri did comply with our forecast model through end of season with northern Missouri quail and pheasant numbers depressed while the southern half of north Missouri quail numbers were good to better than the previous season. The southern half of north Missouri compared equally to the quail density of north central Kansas. These two regions have been perennial good quail hunt localities.
Missouri PheasantMissouri is a non-player in terms of quality pheasant hunting. Pheasant hunters are well advised to hunt Kansas every year. A Kansas down year has always been better than Missouri's best pheasant season.
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