2007 Upland Bird Forecast |
for parts of Iowa, Kansas and Missouri for pheasant and Bobwhite Quail |
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| Upland bird forecast spring indicators show the May and June 2007 rainfall data forecasting the highest pheasant and quail nest and chick survival rate includes: North central Kansas; south central Kansas; north central Missouri with combined May and June rainfall less than average and under the 10 inch mark. Pheasant found the best conditions in the south central Kansas region with the best end of season carry over pheasant population plus current nesting and brooding rainfall. North central and northwest Kansas follow as a close second and close enough to make for all three regions to provide good hunts with some better on quail as well. Bobwhite Quail, the central portion of north central Missouri and north central Kansas had the best quail carry over and spring rains.
See also: May 2007 rainfall forecast indicator Upland bird forecast methodology
As an upland bird forecast of contiguous observations this combined May and June rainfall data is just one checkpoint or indicator to refine an ongoing upland bird forecast collection of observations.
The single most enhancing or degrading environmental factor we have yet determined that impacts pheasant and quail reproduction and survival is the combined May and June rainfall that affects these ground nesting/brooding birds when the chicks are most vulnerable or the period of highest mortality. Summer rainfall and tall grass growth contribute to knowing where the CRP harvest release will be issued or not as the single most impacting observation relative to tall grass pheasant hunting. Further during summer and early fall our own on-the-road surveys of birds observed contribute to confirm or deny what we forecast. The final significant forecast observation checkpoint is our own and that of our member's behind their bird dog observation of habitat and bird numbers. Each checkpoint is contiguous to the one before and after it and continues on a spooling cycle of observations allowing refinement of our upland bird forecast.
Iowa Pheasant Summer Forecast Iowa State DNR concurs with our winter carry over and spring nesting and brooding rainfall data. Pheasants were down last year in Iowa and Iowa did not have favorable brooding weather. That combined indicates that Kansas will once again exceed that of Iowa in better pheasant hunts.
UPLAND GAME NESTING OUTLOOK, Todd Bogenschutz, Upland Wildlife Biologist WEATHER QUESTIONABLE FOR GOOD PHEASANT NUMBERS THIS FALL "Iowa pheasant hunters could see variable bird numbers this fall, thanks to different weather patterns across Iowa. Todd Bogenschutz, the Iowa DNR's upland wildlife biologist, uses a formula based on the previous winter snow fall and spring rainfall and temperature to predict this falls pheasant population....The weather we’ve seen in... southcentral...Iowa suggests bird numbers will be lower or unchanged from last fall... Putting all this together, Bogenschutz' model suggests that, “from a statewide perspective”, our pheasant population could be lower than last year. Though the weather data is correct about 75 percent of the time..."
Kansas Pheasant
This forecast section refers to tall grass and CRP drought release for hay and pasture relative to high population density pheasant holding power in Kansas alone. A forecast of the singular Kansas pheasant habitat of tall grass, not a forecast of all Kansas or for that matter all pheasant hunt quality. Missouri and Iowa do not have sufficient CRP tall grass acreage to be concerned with. The better the July through September rains the thicker and taller the tall grass and the less likely any release to harvest or pasture CRP land.
For 2007 we started this summer's warm season grass growing period with a surplus of deep soil moisture from mostly spring rains rather than winter snowfall. Compared to last year January through July 2006 we had 13. 5 inches of precipitation. The same period in 2007 we had 19.27. This gave the tall grass a jump start allowing for maximum growth with the warming spring temperatures.
July Rains
At this point no CRP harvest/pasture release is expected.
CRP Release Requirements Any release of CRP for grazing is determined by county specific area based on drought and quality of non-CRP forage in the immediate area. To qualify [for drought emergency CRP release,] counties must be able to document a D3 class drought, which means the county has received less than 40% of normal precipitation over a specified period.
This drought emergency CRP release is separate from managed CRP haying/grazing that is allowed once in a three-year period with accompany lower federal payment for that year grazed or hayed. This managed haying is only for the more commonly known large field acreage CRP or what is called "Regular CRP" and does not include filter strips or grassed waterways which can not he grazed or hayed under any conditions.
Another provision within the ruling states that producers in a county declared as an emergency haying and grazing for CRP acreage county can go outside of their county boundaries to find CRP acreage to hay or graze. In fact, they can choose to work with any cooperating CRP participant within a 210-mile radius of their county. However, it's a one-way street. The producer on the other end can't hay or graze his livestock. He can only provide emergency haying or grazing to the person in the county that has been declared as an emergency county for haying and grazing.
Their is risk to the CRP participant for grazing or haying in terms of degradation of the stand quality that may not meet minimum requirements at re-inspection for subsequent year CRP payment. The cause is that native grasses store the bulk of their dormant season energy in their above soil surface stems, typically not less than the bottom 8 inches of stem or higher. To harvest or graze below that level places that entire bunch grass at risk of not having sufficient energy to re-start growth come warm weather. That combined with the lower payment during grazing or haying either as managed or emergency conditions may break the out year profit margins for that CRP land that must be replanted to meet CRP minimum CRP requirements.
The impact to the Association hunter is that we are well aware of all the conservation programs, participant decision criteria and adjust our contracting process accordingly. The value point is to have the right habitat in the right region and to get what we pay for. We do this work and the Association hunter simply hunts.
Summer rains have a large variability factor that makes tracking local statistics difficult. The picture below shows how the common summer time rain storm is an isolated rain storm where one localized area may get a lot of rain while just to the side of the storm track remains sunny and dry.
If this storm happens to cross a weather collection station then its rainfall will be recorded. However, weather collection stations occupy just one spot on the ground the size of a street light mounting base. There are plenty more areas for such isolated rainstorms to travel and never to be recorded. Compensation for incomplete rainfall data collection is heard daily on the early morning agricultural reports listing surface and sub surface soil moisture readings as a better crop growth indicator than localized and incomplete coverage rainfall data.
The rain storm picture above was taken on August 8, 2007 with an unknown amount of rain fall that can be clearly seen in the picture over a limited area in Kansas. While the rain storm in the picture was larger than that which the camera could record the ground observer could easily see both its left and right limits as well as being dry himself.
Impact on Mid-America Hunting Association upland bird hunters is such that our year round, on and off season, observations of our various regions help to balance out this incomplete rainfall data. A similar secondary effect is that which we have seen just about every winter and most can relate to is snowfall and ice storms. That is if one locality has snow cover or experiences an ice storm during the season a short drive is typically all that is required to get into or out of the snowfall region or away from the ice covered roads. Summer rain storms as well as winter snow storms have these same localized effects far more frequently than regional coverage storms.
The advantage we offer the self guided upland bird hunter with these localized weather effects is that we are not limited to one localized upland bird region. The upland bird hunter should always come prepared with a plan 'A' and 'B' for each trip with at least two sets of regional lease maps and lodging lists. Should, while on the way to his hunt or during his hunt, the local weather turn adverse he can execute plan 'B' by traveling to another upland bird region and continue his hunt rather than wait it out in a motel room.
A further effect of such localized weather those with several years of experience hunting the Kansas, Iowa and Missouri area will attest to is that even within as little of an area as a single county there may be poor and excellent pheasant or quail populations due to localized weather patterns. Most seasoned hunters before leaving any county due to perceived poor bird hunts will hunt a different unit within that county or a neighboring county before calling it quits for that particular state region.
A good newspaper article that well illustrates the localized and often times not "officially" recorded rainfall follows: The Hays Daily News, Hays Kansas, 8/21/2007. Rain replenishes some areas of northwest Kansas, by Mike Corn. "...A small band of heavy rain swept through portions of southeast Gove County and northwest Ness County on Monday evening. But rainfall reports were varied, ranging from a little more than an inch to 3 1/4 inches. A series of isolated storms swept through northwest Kansas, dumping the rain and a "tiny bit of hail," said Letha Babcock, "but it didn't amount to anything." At Babcock's rural residence, rainfall amounted to 2 3/4 inches. At the Loris and Delaine Jacka home -- 20 miles south of the Quinter exit off Interstate 70 -- rainfall reports stood at 3 1/2 inches and 3 inches in two gauges….Elsewhere, rainfall amounts varied. In Utica, 1.4 inches fell. North of there, at the Mike Kuntz farm, the gauge read 1.85 inches." Surrounding the Hays area rainfall on 8/20-21/2007 in Greensburg 0.11, Norton 0.0, Washington 0.25 inches. And, the official Hays Kansas recorded rain fall for the period 20 - 21 August 2007 was 0.05. All official rainfall data is available from the Accuweather website.
The bottom line remains that upland bird forecasts are an inexact science of variable bodies of information that collectively and tempered with behind bird dog experience lead to enhanced assessments where the better pheasant and quail hunts will and will not be. This one aspect (snapshot) about summer rains is just one check point of observations along a year round contiguous set of observations that when gathered through the year up to opening day lend more confidence of where to hunt.
August Rains The summer continues to be good for ground nesting, brooding and dwelling birds most notably Kansas pheasant and quail. The summer has been cooler than average and the rains good to insure the deep rooted tall grass cover continues to have the moisture it requires for pheasant cover. The August rainfall continues to indicate, as the latest in a string of observations, that the Kansas pheasant forecast is for good hunt quality as defined by good pheasant numbers and good during the season cover habitat. That along with our current farm year of increased grain production of corn, soybean and wheat means there will also be plenty of winter over waste grain bird food.
Drought Monitor The national drought monitor shows us that our entire MAHA upland bird region has had good overall and fair rains in Missouri through the summer. From this point until the season start there is not much upland bird forecast use for rain in terms of crops with the corn turning brown and the tall grass having gone to seed.
2007 Iowa State Upland Bird Roadside Survey Missouri State 2007 Bobwhite Quail Forecast Missouri State 2007 Pheasant Forecast Kansas State 2007 Upland Bird Forecast |
