Forecast
Upland Bird Specific
Pheasant Hunting
Quail Hunting
| Current Assessment As of July 02, 2008 the indicators are that after the 2007-2008 season showing central and western Kansas being above average with southern Iowa and north Missouri below average we will see a continuation of that imbalance for the fall of 2008. Further refinement we are examining to add to the upland bird forecast for 2009 is modification of the rainfall observations during reproduction period. Currently we examine rainfall from May 1 through June 30 and that has been our past most well documented and proven indicator of up and down bird counts. The refinement to this observation point is to extent the earlier date to April 21 and carry through the rainfall observations to June 30.
A second refinement is tracking the latest freeze, not hard frost. April 2007 hard freeze taught us that eggs if frozen to a greater extent than that of a hard frost most likely kills the eggs. The secondary effect being the eggs look and feel viable to the hen and she sits on dead eggs. This effect is worst than when an egg nest is destroyed and hens relay their nest. The effect being the hen sits on dead eggs trying to take them to hatch and beyond the point of re-nesting instinct. Therefore on hard freeze April years, that impact is great. The rationale is that the earliest nesting by pheasants and later quail begins in early April with egg laying and some birds sitting on nest by the third week of April. During the period of eggs being laid in the nest and that of continuous hen sitting on the eggs in late April adverse influences appears only affected by nest and hen predation and a hard freeze. (April 18 is the local average hard frost and most likely the average latest for a freeze.) However, once the hen begins continuous sitting that activates internal to the egg growth and hen sitting and weather effects from this point further have greater influence on chick reproduction. This includes spring time rainfall. This refinement is tracking reproduction according to the rhythms of nature outside of the box in terms of colander dates man seeks to fit nature into. Method
2008 upland bird forecast for Mid-America Hunting Association private land pheasant and quail hunting region of Kansas, Iowa and Missouri includes several quality analysis time periods. Our first checkpoint is the end of the 2007-2008 upland bird season as a starting point for carry over bird counts going into the late winter early spring. The next checkpoint is the breeding, nesting and brood period of May through June. The final period is from July to opening day as we watch summer habitat quality conditions. The entire focus of our upland bird forecast is to determine relative to the previous season where the better during hunt quality will be found for pheasant and quail in southern Iowa, north Missouri and our Kansas hunting land holdings. The 2008 upland bird forecast time line shown below is a graphic representation of our forecast methodology with color indicators by time block to illustrate trends.
The color indicators are relative to each location for upland bird survival and not solely an indicator where the better pheasant and quail hunts will be found. Hunt quality includes more evaluative points such as habitat type and predominate bird populations. An illustrative example would be that which has been mis-interpreted by some every year is that the green indicators in any one region do not equate to both good pheasant and quail populations as bird population densities vary by region. A yellow indicator for north Missouri may very well have a higher quail density than a green rating for northwest Kansas. This is one point where the MAHA staff distinguishes itself at taking care of its membership. The MAHA staff does collect observations and refines those observation with boots on the ground observations throughout the year to insure their recommendations of where to hunt based on habitat and bird of preference are more refined than just the data presented on these web pages. Non-members attempting to get the same service as provided to members are always disappointed when calling in for ideas of where to hunt based on reading these pages. The response they receive is that if they are allocated a membership not only will we tell them which region to hunt, but also which of our private land upland bird units to hunt. However, until they are members they are left to their own resources of choosing where to hunt. 2008 Upland Bird Forecast Starting Point. The short answer is this map showing the 2007-2008 end of season high and low pheasant and quail counts relative to the previous season.
Read the longer end of season 2007-2008 upland bird analysis.
2008 Upland Bird Forecast End of Season Through Breeding Season
The short answer is the number of adverse weather events by locality summarized on this map.
Comparing the cumulative effects of late winter events to the end of 2007-2008 pheasant and quail count map above gives a more refined evaluation of breeding pair counts. Read the longer analysis of the February through April 2008 upland bird weather impacts. |
