2008 Upland Bird Forecast End of Season Through Breeding Season

Regional Events Relative to Upland Bird Carry Over

From this 2007 - 2008 end of season assessment until the next major environmental effect that contributes a great amount to upland bird reproduction, that being the spring nesting and brood period during May and June, we will be tracking regional cumulative effects of successive small events that collectively within one area may have adverse impact on carry over populations from the end of the hunting season until breeding season. The map below will show the number of regional events we collected data on as having a potential for declining carry over bird numbers.

The map numbers above are listed by number below.

1 February 5-6 rain to freezing rain to snowfall ground accumulation. From southeast Kansas, east past Springfield Missouri north through northeast Kansas, north Missouri and southern Iowa snow ground accumulation on top of a thin layer of ice ranged from less than two inches of ground accumulation in the south of Missouri and Kansas to 10 inches in the north to southern Iowa. This event by itself in terms of snow ground cover is not detrimental. It is of concern due to the previous winter months have had more recurring ice and snow conditions than in previous local memory. The successive nature of this winter's snowfalls and ground accumulation punctuated by thaws is believed to have stressed bird body fat reserves. While not a serious concern at this point in the year any continuation of snow ground accumulation may very well have a detrimental cumulative effect on carry over populations. See our update on winter food sources.

2 February 9-10, wind chill advisory. This weather event illustrates our commitment to track every weather advisory issues for our area for this time period between end of hunting season and reproduction season to include those we may believe at this point have little impact. In the case of this weather event the advisory was issued due to frost bite threat of winds and cold temperatures. The cold temperatures, ranging in the teens, did arrive, the winds were less than predicted.

3 February 11, freezing rain and sleet. Accumulating between 1/4 and 1/2 inch.

4 February 14, freezing drizzle changing to snow. Little accumulation.

5 February 16-17, rain changing to snow with wind. 1-2 inch snow accumulation.

6 February 19 -20, single digit temperatures, wind chill below zero.

Keep in mind that Southern Iowa during February had the most snow ground cover. Compared to Kansas and south into Missouri snow ground cover ranged from thin to patches with bare ground to shade protected drifts only in central Missouri and southern Kansas. Winter over food sources is assumed to be less available in southern Iowa due to snow ground cover.

7 February 21, drizzle, sleet and freezing rain.

 

Feb 22, 2008 this article was published about Iowa pheasant and winter weather.

"...Severe winter storms have become a seemingly daily occurrence - since Dec. 1, southeastern Iowa has seen a cumulative 54 inches of snow, according to the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The 30-year state average is around 25 inches...more Iowa pheasants are dying of exposure..."Right now, we're losing 4 to 5 percent of hens each week," said Todd Bogenschutz, a wildlife research biologist with Natural Resources. "We're modeling a 60 percent hen loss" for the spring. Usually, Iowa loses around 40 percent during a winter..."

Unpleasant for Iowa's pheasants, by Megan Stephenson - The Daily Iowan.

 

8 February 23, rain and sleet changing to snow, 1 - 3 inches accumulation.

 

9 February 25, south central Iowa is on the edge of a rain and wet snow storm system transecting Iowa from northwest to southeast. Mostly snow north of highway 80 with decreasing chances of snow and increasing rain chances the further traveled south of highway 80. This weather event shows well the diverse nature of our isolated regions of Iowa, Missouri and Kansas. At the same time of this cold front moving into Iowa a warm front was moving into southwest Kansas with temperatures at 51 degrees at Greensburg. That warm front spread northeast into the rest of Kansas through past Iowa bringing day time highs for the following week ranging from the 50's in southern Kansas to the mid 40's in southern Iowa. This same type weather differential occurs during hunting season and a good example how traveling upland bird hunters should come prepared with a plan 'A' and 'B' to react to adverse weather in any one area.

 

Taking this one day snapshot of winter and ground cover snow accumulation as a perspective what central mid-west snow fall means for waste grain coverage and other adverse impacts are these two February 25, 2008 snow coverage maps.

 

Green equals no ground snow coverage, white is trace level which on this day meant remnant patches and shade protected drifts with much open ground. The darker the blue color the deeper the reported snow. The deepest snow report near our south-central Iowa region was 9 inches.

 

Another source places ground snow coverage into this perspective for the same day of February 25, 2008.

The numbers represent measured snow accumulation ranging from 0 to a maximum of 5 inches near our south central Iowa upland bird hunting land. The difference between this numbers map and the color map above is the number represents actual measurements rounded to the nearest whole number of actual snow depth on the ground. The color map has each color representing a range of three inch increments for each color.

 

To lend further understanding of our central midwest winter snow accumulation is this January 8, 2008 map showing  a radically different ground snow cover pattern.

The point of this last snow map (gray equals 0-3 inches, green is absolute 0 inches of accumulation) is to illustrate the season snowfall, freeze and thaw patterns of our winters. We do get snowfall, rarely is any snow ground accumulation time contiguous in terms of uniform ground coverage for more than two weeks. These snapshot one day in time maps show that January snow fall less impacting on upland bird or ground dwelling birds than that of February.

 

March 1, 2008 this statement about southern Missouri was issued: "Southern Missouri experienced the wettest February on record. Therefore, soil conditions remain saturated...while rivers and small stream levels are running above average. These moist antecedent conditions combined with the lack of early march vegetation will enhance runoff and flooding."

 

10 March 3, high winds, rain changing to snow. Three inches at higher elevations from Springfield Missouri east into the Ozark Mountains. Trace snow accumulation in north Missouri, northern Kansas and southern Iowa. Rains only in southern Kansas. This storm comes after two days of day time highs in the 50-60's region wide.

 

March 6, using Kansas City as a central point for winter snow fall to date over the 2007-2008 winter we have had 23 inches of snowfall. That compares to our yearly average of 17 inches.

 

11 March 7, localized one day snowfall of wide ranging accumulations from trace to 2 inches. Melted off the next day with temperatures ranging from mid 30s through mid 40s.

 

12 march 14-15, light rain turned to wet snow over night with ground accumulation of trace in northern Kansas and Missouri to 1 inch in localities of southern Iowa. Daytimes highs in the 40's along with warm ground temperatures melted the snow the 15th.

 

2008 Upland Bird Forecast

2007-2008 End Of Seasons Analysis

2008 Weather Outlook
2008 Nest & Brood Months Rainfall