2010 Pheasant and Quail Forecast

This Kansas, Iowa and Missouri 2010 upland bird hunting forecast is limited to that of pheasant and quail. It is further limited within the regions of where the Association has private land. We stick to the area we hunt through the season behind our own dogs. The same as traveled through during the rest of the year working lease contracts.

The current status of our pheasant and quail outlook.

2010 Upland Bird Hunting Forecast begins where the 2009 upland bird hunting forecast ends.

Background for the 2010 forecast begins tracking during the 2009 pheasant and quail season. Information is collected from our time on the ground and that of the Association hunters volunteering their assessments. Weather tracking is year round from multiple reporting stations.

The 2009- 2010 upland bird hunting season showed we were mostly right in Missouri and right in Iowa and Kansas

April 15 - 30 Rainfall

This measurement is a recycling of past indictors that previously included the entire month of April's weather effects. With recent Association hunter discussions we decided to resurrect the April indictor refined to the earliest agreed to period of the first of the eggs hatching.

The range of 15 - 30 April covers the agreed to period that immediately precedes the eggs that have been observed to begun being laid in late March through April and beyond. This data capture of rainfall during the last half of April would impact the earliest of the brooding period, or that period when rainfall has the most effect on chick survival.

The optimum dates within this range for egg hatching is believed to be 19 April and beyond. Starting at 15 April was a compromise between those participating.

This addition to the forecast is believed to be a positive rather than negative measure. It is agreed to that the May - June time period best indicates pheasant reproduction success while quail success includes the longer period from early April into October. The positive evaluator is that any region that has low rainfall during this April period in addition to other indicators provides a more broad based evaluation of that regions potential hunt quality.

Counter arguments to this measure being added to the forecast center on:

When eggs are laid.

When hens actually start to sit or incubate.

How soon quill or weather defending feathers develop to the point of protection.

When eggs are laid by hens follows this pattern.

First eggs appear within our Iowa, Missouri, Kansas locality the end of March through the earliest of April. Observing pen raised quail and pheasant shows that the first eggs produced are not necessarily laid into what will become a nest, or a common placement of eggs. It appears the first eggs are dropped indiscriminate of location. It seems that hens do not have the behavior at the time the first egg(s) appear to collect them into a prepared nest. Sometime later after the first egg is dropped the hen begins nesting with two observable behaviors. The first is the collection of successive eggs into one spot that concurrently is being developed into a shallow bowl of immediately available material.

Hens it appears begin to sit on the nest, incubating eggs, before the last of the eggs are laid. This introduces different ages of eggs during a hen determined set incubation period. Combined this with the disagreement what activates the eggs to grow from stasis into a developing chick in that egg. An unfinished discussion.

What is agreed to is that not all eggs in any one nest are maturing on the same schedule. This is supported by observations that after chicks begin to hatch from eggs the hen leaves the nest before all eggs are hatched. Nest abandoned by hens show chicks within the shells having died during their efforts to extract themselves from the shell. Nests further show fully intact eggs containing both developed and undeveloped chicks.

The core discussion is that in spite of agreement when the first eggs appear we are left without sufficient observation of when hens begin to incubate eggs. This starts with when hens begin to collect their eggs ito the nest and continues with two additional unknowns. The first variable appears to be the rate of egg production per hen. The answer seems to be 1.5 eggs per day as observed by pen raised hens. The next variable at what point do hens being incubating eggs. This seems to have a wide and not accurately measured start point. Hens seem to have a variable number of eggs that constitutes a nest ready for incubation. This is assumption and presumes hens have some ability to measure in terms of egg count. That behavior of when to sit on a nest is likely to have some other trigger not yet agreed to. This leaves us with the point of discussion that appearance of the first eggs does not offer a clear timeline of incubation and hatch. We do the best we can with the combined input from others with a passion for their dogs.

The final counter argument about rain and chick survival is when are chicks well developed with feathers to protect first against adverse weather effects and then for flight or enhanced beyond ground movement escape capability. The outside time is five weeks with the agreed to earliest time of the significantly greatest protection in three weeks. This again cones from observations of pen raised stock. It appears at three weeks of age the chicks have sufficient feathering to protect against the average spring's weather effects without protection from the hen at three weeks.

May 2010 Rainfall

May 2010 rainfall appears to be setting up for a repeat of 2009. That is more rain east and less west within the MAHA Missouri, Iowa and Kansas region.

The predominate western Kansas pheasant localities now have the makings for the fourth consecutive favorable spring weather.

The better looking quail region is forming to be north central Kansas. This too follows on its fourth favorable spring prime hatch month weather.

Southeast Kansas did have a good May, the first in a long while. If that should continue next season SE Kansas could return to favorable quail hunting.

Iowa along with the eastern Missouri counties of MAHA land received more than desirable and above average rainfall. This will make the fourth consecutive year of higher than wanted rain. Iowa pheasant populations are likely to be the most adversely effected. Missouri quail surprised us last year having higher covey counts than expected. That along with the lower rainfall in western Missouri could see a continuing rebound in quail. This will be further enhanced should the rest of summer have good weather.

June 2010 Rainfall

June was not a good month for ground nesting birds.

When combining the May and June rainfall the answer of where the better pheasant and quail hunting indicates to be is Kansas.

Iowa just too much rain. This year's poor Iowa nesting season is the fourth consecutive for Iowa making it unlikely for a quick recovery should next spring have favorable weather. Much the same for Missouri.

Kansas on the other hand now has had four consecutive good springs.

July Through October Rainfall

The measure taken is rainfall for that time period and locality compared to long term average rainfall for the same. This measure was adopted due to not having any other comparison basis.

It is assumed that average or less rain is better if the adverse weather effect of rain during the cooler prime nesting and brooding months of April 15 through June 30 remains true for July through October. The cautionary observation is that rain during high heat and lower rainfall periods of July through October may be an enhancement to summer time quail chick survival. We also assume this being our first season of such observations will require a minimum of five years to determine if there is any cause and effect relationship of summer rains to hunt quality. That is a relationship other than protective cover and grain feed source growth.

Kansas Quail and Pheasant Outlook

2009-2010 Kansas upland bird hunting season covering pheasant, quail and Prairie Chicken showed us the highest quality hunts of our three states. Northeast, north central, northwest and south central Kansas had good hunts when weather permitted hunter access. Southeast Kansas was the exception sustaining its now long trend of low quail counts. This region is outside of the pheasant population/occupation range.

Kansas quail were affected by the shifting grain crops largely between winter wheat and milo. Those areas last season of cut milo overlapping good quail populations yielded the best quail hunts while this season saw many of those areas rotated into winter wheat and corresponding low covey counts. A reminder to many how the best hunts are within the grain farming regions above all others. Some interpret this as discouraging news rather than realization of how the world is. The bottom line is that Kansas had very good quail hunting satisfying all that had several seasons of hunts. the snowfall was the only complaint. With Kansas having its fourth consecutive good spring, covey counts will be as high as they get for the 2010 - 2011 season.

Kansas pheasant season was a good as it gets. Degradations occurred due to reduced tall grass CRP acreage. Further hunt quality was affected by localized lower quality tall grass in thickness and height than weather indicators led us to believe. Another reminder that summer rains can be spotty. A third degradation conspired to work against pheasant hunt quality with the drifted snow making walking in north central and northeast Kansas very difficult to impossible concentrating hunters away from those regions into northwest and south central Kansas. These three aspects led to more pressure in small areas showing the resiliency of pheasant populations responding by shifting patterns. Baring a repeat in 2010 of 2009's snowfall this concentration of hunters should not recur.

With Kansas having a good spring weather pattern on top of high prior season pheasant populations the 2010 pheasant hunting season looks to be prime.

Kansas did suffer the worst of the 2009 -2010 winter weather effects. This was a reversal of the typical winter where Kansas gets off light while southern Iowa and north Missouri receives more snow ground accumulation and for longer periods of time. Even with Kansas having the worst winter in memory there were long intermittent periods of brown ground that were shown repetitively through the December and January updates. These were the months with the most snow. In the end it appears quail and pheasant were affected by periods of waste grains covered and unavailable due to snow. However, the snowfall-thaw cycle was sufficient frequent throughout the winter to reveal waste grain and further survival.

It is anticipated with Iowa statewide pheasant counts the lowest on record and the increasingly greater dissatisfaction with South Dakotas released birds that Kansas will have an increase in pheasant hunters for the 2010 season.

Iowa Quail and Pheasant Outlook

2009 Iowa upland bird hunting for both pheasant and quail followed expectations with the lowest of our three state region hunt quality. The dry spring during May and June 2009 was encouraging. However it also showed the previous decline in quail numbers too severe to be over come with one good breeding season. Iowa pheasant numbers continue to decline.

The 2010 spring was not favorable to Iowa. We do not recommend anyone plan an Iowa pheasant or quail hunting trip. Any gains archived through the 2009 good spring have been erased with very high spring 2010 rainfall.

Missouri Quail Outlook

The 2009 Missouri quail season was a pleasant surprise with higher than predicted covey counts.

Admittedly, Missouri's quail covey counts were lower than historic averages. They were higher than the forecast indicators allowed us to believe.

We saw again this year in Missouri how Bobwhite Quail are more prolific at re-nesting than are either turkey or pheasant. This lesson we learn every couple of years that even though the May-June time period is the prime or most likely to breed period that quail will breed throughout the summer. Further proof of this are the juvenile coveys we will find each late summer. The good news for Missouri continues. There were also a good level of quail surviving the season.

Spring 2010 was a mix for Missouri in terms of unfavorable and borderline acceptable rainfall. The short answer is if looking to Missouri quail hunt it should be better in the west part and less productive in the central and east Missouri region of MAHA lands. Missouri should be a good hunt to check out favored past spots in the west. This should make for a quick stopover type hunt while traveling to or from the better Kansas upland bird regions.

Supplemental information. Missouri quail largely sustain their historic higher than average quail counts over that of Kansas due to more acreage in soybean and corn. Kansas in contrast has much more acreage in winter wheat with many fields run two consecutive years in wheat before rotating to another grain. That second year wheat field after summer harvest extending into fall further degrades quail retention into that third season. This regional difference in farming practices is often cited for the variable covey finds in Kansas while year to year sustained anchored coveys in Missouri typically means better hunts season to season.