Upland Bird Hunting Quality Forecast Methodology
for parts of Kansas, Iowa and Missouri - This Association's Approach
Upland bird Hunting forecasts are based on:
During season upland bird hunting by the Association staff behind their own dogs in Kansas, iowa and Missouri where the Association has private land.
Off season tracking of spring nesting and brood weather.
Summer time rainfall and habitat development.
Contributions voluntarily sent in by Association hunters.
We operate as a business rather than a club. As a business we know the type of hunts hunters seek in order to earn their return business. Knowing where the better pheasant and quail populations will be from year to year is part of that business.
When a pair of boots can be worn out before the end of the season is the type of private land resource we all want. This is possible in this Association. Your MAHA staff does just that over the course of the entire 12 months. Their job is out looking at land. Not sitting in an office.
From talking to other hunters from around the nation wearing out a pair of boots within one season is the realm of the plains hunter. It seems the big woods grouse hunter for example just does not cover as much ground as do plains hunters working dogs on pheasant and quail. Part of that is the grouse hunters difficulty at moving through thick cover. In tour Iowa, Kansas, Missouri region hunters may walk as fats as they can having only low level grasses and thin brush.
What does it take to wear out boots in one season? It is the ability to hunt from first to last light over many days. Not resting until achieving that special satisfaction of having hunted enough.
About Our Upland Bird Hunting Forecast
We receive questions every year about our forecast and how we reach it. Several elements that contribute to our forecast includes:
previous season densities,
trusted hunter feedback,
12 month year on the ground observation,
season long weather effects.
Population densities during the previous season indicating the potential carry over for spring mating. We take this evaluation from our own on the ground during the season and late winter assessments. This is combined with the next input, that of our trusted hunters.
We have trusted hunters that are not given to exaggeration or deception on their personal field observations. These hunters give assessments of where the population trends are increasing or decreasing by the regions they hunt. Just as the Association staff may not be able to cover all Association lease land regions during the season neither can any one hunter. However, combining the reports from a good selection of hunters that hunt all regions with our year round observations does provide a more complete assessment.
Next, is our own or MAHA staff assessment during the season behind dogs we trained and hunt. Nothing beats first hand experience.
Dog work. What we are all after.
Your Association staff does practice what they preach and rarely hunt the same units twice in a season. Both Jon Nee and John Wenzel travel about each of the regions during the season. That along with the rest of the year observing weather and habitat effects. Their objective is to give every hunter the best experience possible. The first step in that process is the right habitat in the right region of the state with a history of production. The resulting recommendation to Association hunters of where to hunt is intended to motivate that member to renew his membership due to having a good hunt.
Finally, the most significant indicator of spring hatch survival and subsequent fall's good hunt is the combined rainfall during the critical hatch and brood months of May and June for pheasant and summer long for quail.
No other environmental influencing factor that can be measure has such a direct connection to ground nesting fowl populations than the spring rains. The issue is not to have too much rain. As a mark to gauge we have found through the years that less than 10 inches combined May and June rainfall indicates an above average pheasant chick survival rate. This is increasingly so as that rainfall decreases in amount.
Quail on the other hand have a higher frequency of re-nesting. We have observed juvenile conveys at the start of the season. For quail we will continue to track spring through summer weather effects. This refinement of recognizing that pheasant and quail are the same in their reproduction adds further refinement to the forecast.
Other environmental factors we have tracked and attempt to draw correlations have included winter cold temperatures and snowfall. Both of which had no statistical correlation to hunt quality. In the central mid-west our winters are mild to the point they have none of the degrading affect that northern states suffer. The benefit is of greater spring carry over and general strength of the hens. It is rare to shovel snow from a driveway in Kansas compared to the near daily ritual in Michigan.
Our "road survey" while not formalized to route and time is one that does cover a good bit our our region. This is throughout the year and shows us much such as this August covey. Or, at least the last part of it. They always seem to be faster to run to cover than we are with our camera. At least three times this many had made it to cover when this picture was taken.
The next environmental influence we have has been summer heat and rainfall. This criteria is more about habitat than reproduction.
Cover habitat is degraded by drought or enhanced by rains. A secondary effect being predation protection to maturing juvenile quail and pheasant. That secondary affect has been minimal to non-consequential in terms of population numbers. That same indicator of summer rains and the lack there of during some years does impact hunt quality in spite of numbers. That impact is that good tall grass is thick and five feet average height or better. That cover holds pheasants tight and in numbers that make for the memorable rolling flushes and successive points. These are the conditions where one field, one walk, one dog, one hunter can have four rooster points, four shells and four in the bag kind of day. However, if the grass is thin and low due to drought the pheasants do not concentrate and are far more given to run.
Quail are less affected as weeds will grow. Weeds will attract bugs. Tall grass is not required by quail for protective cover.
When we combine all factors used in our upland bird hunting forecast we assess as to where to recommend hunters to hunt quail and or pheasant. The idea is maximizing their hunt quality and not as a promise of bagging limits every day. This hunt quality aspect includes habitat type. We have experienced hunters that may excel on the brushy draw may achieve only frustration in the tall prairie grass. Getting as many as is reasonable to experience satisfaction from the quality of the hunt rather than by counting bag limits is the goal. bag limits do come. They come to those that seem to first enjoy their dog.
The final element to a good upland bird hunting be it for quail or pheasant is the time and weather conditions during the season. Our early season from the last of October through November is typically warm. This period makes for plenty of 'T' shirt field days and heat fatigued dogs. From December onwards the colder weather becomes more reliable and hunt quality improves for scenting conditions, dog and hunter comfort.
The report card we work for.
Association Hunter Feedback
Hey John,
Just wanted to drop a note and give our input on forecasts. We do read the various forecasts and have learned to believe in the spring rainfall predicting populations in the fall. However, the crop rotation on club land and the weather probably affects our results as much as anything.
When we joined MAHA, we had just spent the prior season trying to travel and hunt public land and/or attempting to find land owners to ask permission to hunt. We found it to be a very frustrating experience. Now, we travel 15 hours to hunt 1-2 times a year, but have really enjoyed it. However, it does not allow much of an opportunity to scout ahead of time or to pick and choose the days we are going to hunt. We pick the dates long in advance and hunt in whatever weather that comes our way. Then, we adjust where we hunt based on the crop and weather conditions we encounter when we get there.
Since there are normally only two of us, we tend to stick with the edges around crop. We enjoy watching the dogs work and actually hunt CRP sparingly. Ever since joining the club, we have taken notes on the crops planted, the flushed, and overall opinion of the quality of the cover of each section that we hunt. This doesn't guarantee we will find any the next season, but it does save us some valuable driving time. Since we have notes on the land, a quick drive by to see what crop is planted helps us make a quick decision to hunt it.
Year before last, all of the forecasts were up and we went out expecting a big year. The first day, we headed out and were greeted with field after field of winter wheat. Our favorite crop to hunt near is milo followed by beans and corn. But, if anybody has a tip about winter wheat, we are all ears. That year, we shifted focus and hunted some thicker cover and found more pheasant than quail as would probably be expected.
We typically go the first week of the season and hope for decent weather. Anybody that went that week last year to the area we go will probably agree that the weather was terrible and the road conditions worse. This really restricted the sections we could safely reach. Again, having good notes helps out! When it gets cold or windy, we generally head for thicker cover. We knew of such a spot that ended up having milo in and around the thicker cover. We managed 10 (yes 10 including the few dups) covey rises and several pheasants while on 3 adjacent large sections of club land without ever having to move our vehicle. We returned to the hotel with limits of quail and pheasant while everybody else had little to no success and some had even called it off early out of frustration. This was the day after we suffered in snow, ice and 45mph winds.
In short, we hunt regardless of the weather or crop rotation adversity. We just shift slightly based on the conditions. When it is warm, we stick with the edges along the crop fields and head for the thicker cover when it turns cold and/or windy. The amount of rainfall in the spring has been linked to the population in the fall. It is probably also a good indicator of the quality of the crop. Besides that, our only advice would be to stay flexible and have good notes. West Virginia Partners Karen and John
Our Upland Bird Hunting Forecast Methodology
