Upland Bird Forecast
We operate as a hunting business rather than a hunting club. As a business we know the type of hunts upland bird hunters seek in order to earn their return business. Knowing where the better pheasant and quail populations will be from year to year is part of that business.
Upland bird forecasts are based on:
During season upland bird hunts by the Association staff behind their own bird dogs in Kansas, iowa and Missouri where the Association has hunting land.
Off season tracking of spring nesting and brood weather.
Summer time rainfall and habitat development.
Bird dog hunting when a pair of boots can be worn out before the end of the season is the type of bird hunting we all want and is possible in Mid-America Hunting Association. Your MAHA staff does just that over the course of the entire 12 months on the year staying in touch with the land, the landowners and the wildlife.
From talking to other bird hunters from around the nation wearing out a pair of boots within one season is the realm of the plains hunter. It seems the big woods grouse hunter for example just does not cover as much ground as do plains hunters working dogs on pheasant and quail.
What does it take to wear out boots in one season? It is the ability to hunt from first to last light over many days and not resting unless moving from one spot to the next the entire season.
We receive questions every year about our upland forecast and how we reach it. Several elements that contribute to our forecast include previous season densities, trusted hunter feedback, 12 month year on the ground observation and spring rains.
Population densities during the previous season indicating the potential carry over population for spring mating. We take this evaluation from our own on the ground during the season and late winter assessments. This is combined with the next input, that of our trusted hunters.
We have trusted hunters that are not given to exaggeration or deception on their personal bird hunting observations. These hunters give assessments of where the upland population trends are increasing or decreasing by the regions they hunt. Just as the Association staff may not be able to cover all Association lease land regions during the season neither can any one hunter. However, combining the reports from a good selection of hunters from that hunt all regions with our year round observations does provide a more complete and collaborated assessment.
Next, is our own or MAHA staff assessment during the hunting season behind dogs we trained and hunt, one of which is pictured above. Nothing beats first hand experience.
Bird dog action, what we are all after.
Your Association staff does practice what they preach and rarely hunt the same units twice in a season. Both Jon Nee and John Wenzel travel about each of the regions during the season and through out the rest of the year observing birds. Their objective is to give every hunter the best experience possible and the first step in that process is the right habitat in the right region of the state with a history of production. The resulting recommendation is intended to motivate that member to renew his membership due to having a good hunt.
Finally, the most significant indicator of spring hatch survival and subsequent fall's good hunting is the combined rainfall during the critical hatch and brood months of May and June.
No other environmental influencing factor that can be measure has such a direct connection to upland or ground nesting bird populations than the spring rains. The issue is not to have too much rain. As a mark to gauge we have found through the years that less than 10 inches combined May and June rainfall indicates an above average chick survival rate increasingly so as that rainfall decreases in amount.
Other environmental factors we have tracked and attempt to draw correlations have included winter cold temperatures and snowfall. Both of which had no statistical correlation. In the central mid-west our winters are mild to the point they have none of the degrading affect that northern states suffer and the consequences of less spring carry over and general strength of the hens. It is rare to shovel snow from a driveway in Kansas compared to the near daily ritual in Michigan.
Our upland "road survey" while not formalized to route and time is one that does cover a good bit our our region throughout the year and shows us birds of the year such as this August covey. Or, at least the last part of it as they always seem to be faster to run to cover than we are with our camera. At least three times this may birds had made it to cover when this picture was taken.
The next environmental influence we have discounted has been summer heat and rainfall. While cover habitat is degraded by drought or enhanced by rains with a secondary effect being predation protection to maturing juvenile birds that secondary affect has been minimal to non-consequential in terms of bird number. That same indicator of summer rains and the lack there of during some years does impact hunt quality in spite of bird numbers. That impact is that good tall grass is thick and five feet average height or better holds pheasants tight and in numbers that make for the memorable rolling flushes. These are the conditions where one field, one walk, one dog, one hunter can have four rooster points, four shells and four in the bag kind of day. However, it the grass is thin and low due to drought the pheasants do not concentrate and are far more given to run.
When we combine all four factors used in our upland bird forecast we assess as to where to recommend hunters to hunt quail and or pheasant with the idea of maximizing their hunt quality and not as a promise of bagging limits every day. This hunt quality aspect includes habitat type as we have experienced hunters that may excel on the brushy draw may achieve only frustration in the tall prairie grass.
The final element to a good upland bird hunt be it for quail or pheasant is the time and weather conditions during the season. Our early season from the last of October through November is typically warm making for plenty of 'T' shirt hunting days and heat fatigued dogs. From December onwards the colder weather becomes more reliable and hunt quality improves for scenting conditions, dog and hunter comfort.
While some of the earlier portions of this upland bird forecast may seem weighted toward pheasants and not quail, quail are also well watched. In terms of forecasting quail the dryer the spring the better and summer drought not much of an adverse impact.
At this point have a read of our current upland bird forecast that covers in specific detail by regions where Mid-America Hunting Association covers with hunting land.
The report card we work for.
Association Hunter Feedback
Hey John,
Just wanted to drop a note and give our input on upland bird forecasts. We do read the various forecasts and have learned to believe in the spring rainfall predicting the bird population in the fall. However, the crop rotation on club land and the weather probably affects our results as much as anything.
When we joined MAHA, we had just spent the prior hunting season trying to travel and hunt public land and/or attempting to find land owners to ask permission to hunt. We found it to be a very frustrating experience. Now, we travel 15 hours to hunt 1-2 times a year, but have really enjoyed it. However, it does not allow much of an opportunity to scout ahead of time or to pick and choose the days we are going to hunt. We pick the dates long in advance and hunt in whatever weather that comes our way. Then, we adjust where we hunt based on the crop and weather conditions we encounter when we get there.
Since there are normally only two of us, we tend to stick with the edges around crop. We enjoy watching the dogs work and actually hunt CRP sparingly. Ever since joining the club, we have taken notes on the crops planted, the birds flushed, and overall opinion of the quality of the cover of each section that we hunt. This doesn’t guarantee we will find birds the next season, but it does save us some valuable driving time. Since we have notes on the land, a quick drive by to see what crop is planted helps us make a quick decision to hunt it.
Year before last, all of the forecasts were up and we went out expecting a big year. The first day, we headed out and were greeted with field after field of winter wheat. Our favorite crop to hunt near is milo followed by beans and corn. But, if anybody has a tip about hunting winter wheat, we are all ears. That year, we shifted focus and hunted some thicker cover and found more pheasant than quail as would probably be expected.
We typically go the first week of the season and hope for decent weather. Anybody that went that week last year to the area we go will probably agree that the weather was terrible and the road conditions worse. This really restricted the sections we could safely reach. Again, having good notes helps out! When it gets cold or windy, we generally head for thicker cover. We knew of such a spot that ended up having milo in and around the thicker cover. We managed 10 (yes 10 including the few dups) covey rises and several pheasants while hunting 3 adjacent large sections of club land without ever having to move our vehicle. We returned to the hotel with limits of quail and pheasant while everybody else had little to no success and some had even called it off early out of frustration. This was the day after we suffered hunting in snow, ice and 45mph winds.
In short, we hunt regardless of the weather or crop rotation adversity. We just shift slightly based on the conditions. When it is warm, we stick with the edges along the crop fields and head for the thicker cover when it turns cold and/or windy. The amount of rainfall in the spring has been linked to the bird population in the fall. It is probably also a good indicator of the quality of the crop. Besides that, our only advice would be to stay flexible and have good notes. West Virginia Hunting Partners Karen and John
Our upland bird forecast methodolgy.
