Upland Bird Hunting Forecast and Rain
Upland bird hunting quality is more effected by rain than any other environmental effect that we can measure.
Critics have said in the past we give too much weight to rainfall and not enough to other environmental influences on reproduction and year round survival. We have asked those same critics to offer alternatives. They have offered environmental factors already disclaimed by direct and in-direct research.
The point we made here and elsewhere is that spring brood period rainfall is not the only element to our forecast. It is the final for the year significant indicator of where the better hunts are to be found. Typically, by this point in the discussion, the critic has sealed his mind to all other than his thoughts. The killer is when we ask for a research citation for the "facts" the critic has armed himself with. And, that is not an idle question. W we recognize that the best information is that which disinterested third parties provide. We seek that best information to add to our study effort.
This is the most common type of rain effect we experience in the central mid-west. That of the localized rainfall. This radar picture is from June 5, 2006 when St. Joseph, Missouri (the center of the rain clouds) received 0.64 inches. The rest of the region much less.
| June 5 2006 Rain | St. Joe, Mo | Kansas City, Mo | Columbia, Mo | Kirksville, Mo | Springfield, MO | Joplin, MO | St Louis, MO |
| 0.64 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | trace | 0.00 |
| June 5 2006 Rain | Lincoln, NE NE KS | Concordia, KS | Holdrege NE NW Kansas, Norton area | Goodland, Ks | Dodge City, KS | Medicine Lodge , KS | Chanute, KS |
| 5 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| June 5 2006 Rain | Omaha, NE | Lamoni, IA | Ottumwa, IA |
| 5 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
The less frequent type of rain coverage is that which covers the entire region in a large area rainfall of long duration.
The problem these types of localized rains create is that as experienced on this (2006) spring illustrated.
What we see on this map is that St. Joseph for the two month period received a total of 2.9 inches. An isolated south central Iowa collection station not too far away had 7.9 inches. That kind of disparity in a small area is common. How that effects ground nesting fowl reproduction is that one county may have poor hunt while an hour drive in any other direction will have the hunter in good numbers. To this we offer the flexibility that all that travel to hunt always come prepared for a plan A and plan B. If a favored locality is not working due to earlier or current weather (an ice storm moved in) a short drive to another locality will save the trip. Have those Plan B maps and lodging listing in the truck.
It may seem we are overly focused on rainfall. We have made it a specific study to our upland bird hunting forecast methodology. And, this is one more point about rainfall.
Summer rains have a large variability factor that makes tracking local statistics difficult. The picture below shows how the common summer time rain storm is an isolated rain storm. One where a localized area may get a lot of rain while just to the side of the storm track remains sunny and dry.
If this storm happens to cross a weather collection station then its rainfall will be recorded. However, weather collection stations occupy just one spot on the ground the size of a street light mounting base. There are plenty more areas for such isolated rainstorms to travel and never to be recorded. Compensation for incomplete rainfall data collection is heard daily on the early morning agricultural reports. They speak in terms of listing surface and sub surface soil moisture readings as a better crop growth indicator than localized and incomplete coverage rainfall data.
The rain storm picture above was taken on August 8, 2007 with an unknown amount of rainfall that can be clearly seen in the picture over a limited area in Kansas. While the rain storm in the picture was larger than that which the camera could record the ground observer could easily see both its left and right limits as well as being dry himself.
Impact on Association hunters is such that our year round, on and off season, observations of our various regions help to balance out this incomplete rainfall data. A similar secondary effect is that which we have seen just about every winter and most can relate to is snowfall and ice storms. That is if one locality has snow cover or experiences an ice storm during the season a short drive is typically all that is required to get into or out of the snowfall region or away from the ice covered roads. Summer rain storms as well as winter snow storms have these same localized effects far more frequently than regional coverage storms.
A further effect of such localized weather is that even within as little of an area as a single county there may be poor and excellent pheasant or quail populations. This is due to localized weather patterns. Most seasoned hunters before leaving any county due to perceived poor hunts will hunt a different unit within that county or a neighboring county before calling it quits for that particular state region.
A good newspaper article that well illustrates the localized and often times not "officially" recorded rainfall follows:
The Hays Daily News, Hays Kansas, 8/21/2007.
Rain replenishes some areas of northwest Kansas, by Mike Corn.
"...A small band of heavy rain swept through portions of southeast Gove County and northwest Ness County on Monday evening. But rainfall reports were varied, ranging from a little more than an inch to 3 1/4 inches. A series of isolated storms swept through northwest Kansas, dumping the rain and a 'tiny bit of hail,' said Letha Babcock, 'but it didn't amount to anything.' At Babcock's rural residence, rainfall amounted to 2 3/4 inches. At the Loris and Delaine Jacka home -- 20 miles south of the Quinter exit off Interstate 70 -- rainfall reports stood at 3 1/2 inches and 3 inches in two gauges...Elsewhere, rainfall amounts varied. In Utica, 1.4 inches fell. North of there, at the Mike Kuntz farm, the gauge read 1.85 inches."
Surrounding the Hays area rainfall on 8/20-21/2007 in Greensburg 0.11, Norton 0.0, Washington 0.25 inches. And, the official Hays Kansas recorded rain fall for the period 20 - 21 August 2007 was 0.05. All official rainfall data is available from the Accuweather website.
The bottom line remains that upland bird hunting forecasts are an inexact science of variable bodies of information that collectively and tempered with behind a dog experience lead to enhanced assessments where the better pheasant and quail hunts will and will not be. This one aspect (snapshot) about summer rains is just one check point of observations along a year round contiguous set of observations that when gathered through the year up to opening day lend more confidence of where to hunt.
Upland Bird Hunting and Hunter Feedback
Dear John & MAHA Staff...just a note to let you know my 11/2 yr. old German Wirehair (Pete) & I enjoyed immensely our 1st hunt with MAHA. It took a while to figure out where they were hiding but we took home 2 in only a day + so we were VERY pleased & Pete got some much needed experience on crafty, older, wild. There was LOTS of land to hunt, no other hunters & the habitat was better than anything I ever hunted growing up in Illinois. Thanks much & this transplanted New Mexico hunter looks forward to a long & enjoyable relationship...!!! All the best & happy year, Sincerely, John
For the rest of us John joined in late November on what we will all agree was a down year for pheasants. He is a hard hunter as is evident of his woods grouse picture below where those that have hunted such land and habitat know what a good day is. And, in spite of being a first year member, joining late, traveling long distance, on his first hunt, on a down year he did enjoy his hunt probably more than many of us locals who complain when we do not limit out by noon! Thank you John for the proper perspective, we needed the reminder. Good looking Wirehair also.
