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Each year when we publish our forecast it generates discussion. Those topics outside of our Forecast Methodology are shared in this article.
Upland birds and rainfall find that most hunters agree with the correlation between ground nesting birds and spring nesting and brood month rainfall.
For those that may have lingering doubts that correlation can be verified by anyone that will compare historical rainfall data available from accuweather.com (premium service) and state conservation agency roadside surveys. For those with years of hunting experience within our region they will simply compare those rain numbers to birds in the bag counts to draw their own conclusions.
The same data sets can be used to compare other environmental influences such as the often cited summer droughts. While summer drought (when it occurs) does affect protective cover quality it has little affect on bird survival otherwise.
Upland bird forecasts and geographic or regional comparison models are not interchangeable.
An example are those in the region from central Texas, New Mexico and Arizona where a minimum floor of rain is required to allow for good bug production there go brood survival food source. Their perspective is not if they received too much rain it is along the lines if they receive too little rain they do not have the bug production to allow for good brood success rates.
In the central mid-west, or our three state region of Kansas, Iowa and Missouri, we do not know what a bad bug year is. We always have bugs or more than average bugs with any year showing plenty for brood survival. An agricultural correlation may be drawn from our region where water intensive crops of beans and corn are grown without irrigation in Iowa, Missouri and east Kansas, and it is not until central Kansas and west does irrigation become more prevalent with annual precipitation below 35 inches.
This correlation continues in these regions as dry land crops of wheat and milo grow without irrigation. Compared that to the central Texas, New Mexico, Arizona region where even deep rooted alfalfa is more often irrigated than not. In our case it is a concern over too much rain rather than too little. We have not detected any correlation between low rainfall amounts and ground nesting bird chick to juvenile status survival and do not know how little is too little rainfall within our region.
The analysis of why the 10 inch mark is the cut line between above and below average chick survival rates and subsequent fall hunting quality has been drawn from experience of comparing birds in the bag of that fall to the previous spring. It was the early 1960's Arizona Game Bird Study that initially turn us onto this correlation and subsequent other studies the most recent was a few years ago published by the NWTF that drew conclusions about nesting and brood month rainfall amounts and chick survival to juvenile or quill feather status (the point chicks have a high survival rate in terms of weather conditions).
These studies also provided proofs to other topics to include in the Arizona Study the vertical distribution of ground nesting birds based on humidity and temperatures at elevations allowing or inhibiting in-the-egg chick development. This explained for the first time the environmental limiting factors of why some regions have various partridges and other Bobwhite Quail. Or, as an example in our region why we have different localities for Rios versus eastern turkeys.
These studies also drilled down deeper into the rain statistics distinguishing between amounts of rainfall per event, the number and frequency of rainfall events, total rainfall, temperature at the time of rainfall, day versus night rainfall effects. While all these subcategories causes had an enhancing or degrading effect on nest and brood survival it was far more data to assimilated than we had time. In short the studies found that rainfall less than a 1/4 inch per event had less adverse effect than that above 1/4 inch. Rains on warm to hot days less adverse effect than cold days. Night rains less adverse effect than day. A rain that combined two or more of these categories had increased adverse or enhancing effect.
What distinguishes our upland bird forecast from all others available through state conservation agencies or magazines is that we are accountable to our members in terms of getting them the hunting they desire and our motivation for being right in our forecast is our credibility with those members and their likelihood to renew their memberships. To be crass it comes down to money. To be accurate it is to have a good hunting organization.
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What gives us confidence in our forecast is not just the research it is that we also train and hunt our own bird dogs within the region we provide the forecast. These two facets (membership accountability and our on the ground throughout the year experience) no other forecast source can claim.
